To quantitatively assess the navigation situation of the three gorges ship lock, the paper applied complex system science theory and catastrophe theory method of the generalized model to establish multilevel and multiindex based comprehensive evaluation model. Firstly, the paper set up a comprehensive assessment index with lock reliability, ship accessibility and management efficient. And then, mutation status of three gorges navigation state system were studied, and yearly swallowtail catastrophe model and monthly butterfly catastrophe model were established. Data retrieved from yearly record from 2006 to 2010 is practically analyzed by using the proposed model.
Key words
three gorges ship lock /
navigation situation /
catastrophe theory /
comprehensive assessment
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