YANG Xue, ZHI Jingkai, ZHANG Wenjun, ZHOU Xiangyu, XU Sheng, HAN Bing, JIA Xiaofei
This paper reviewed systematically the evolution of research topics in the field of Arctic navigation safety, and summarized the application scenarios, supporting decisionmaking, model methods, risk factors, and data sources of risk assessment. The results show that the Arctic navigation risk assessment is an important means to improve navigation safety,which mainly supports decisions on three levels: strategic level, operational level, and execution level. At present, there is still insufficient research on the frequent mechanical failures, marine pollution, propulsion system failure and other accidents, the application of risk assessment in the field of navigation safety assurance in the Northwest Passage, and the impact of risk source such as icing, high latitude, human factors on navigation safety. In the future, the standardization of quantitative risk assessment technology for Arctic navigation should be promoted, navigation risk assessment technology under the coupling of multiple risk factors should be studied,the ship intelligence and channel digitization platforms should be effectively utilized to develop real-time navigation risk prediction systems, and provide better scientific evidence for polar navigation risk prevention and control.