Forecasting Baltic dry index with unequal-interval grey wave forecasting model

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Journal of Dalian Maritime University ›› 2015, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4) : 96-101.

CHEN Yan-hui*

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Abstract

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of time series with irregular fluctuation ranges, such as Baltic Dry Index, this paper proposes a unequal-interval grey wave forecasting model, particularly, using quantile to define the contour lines and establishing GM(1,1) models only based on qualified isoheight time sequences. In the end, this paper uses Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to testify the modified model empirically. The empirical analysis indicates the unequal-interval grey wave forecasting model is better than traditional grey wave forecasting model in prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

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unequal-Interval / greywave forecasting / Baltic Dry Index / irregular fluctuations range

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CHEN Yan-hui. Forecasting Baltic dry index with unequal-interval grey wave forecasting model[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University. 2015, 41(4): 96-101

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