Ship Trajectory Prediction and Privacy Protection Scheme based on Mamba-Transformer

Huang Zhao-ran, Yan Yan, Yuan Hang

Journal of Dalian Maritime University ›› 2025, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (4) : 10-21.

PDF(12186 KB)
PDF(12186 KB)
Journal of Dalian Maritime University ›› 2025, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (4) : 10-21.

Ship Trajectory Prediction and Privacy Protection Scheme based on Mamba-Transformer

  • Huang Zhao-ran,Yan Yan*,Yuan Hang
Author information +
History +

Abstract

Ship trajectory prediction is a core technology for intelligent shipping, yet existing models suffer from high computational costs, inadequate modeling of global spatio-temporal dependencies, and lack of privacy protection when processing long-sequence data. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a ship trajectory prediction and privacy-preserving scheme based on Mamba-Transformer fusion. The scheme innovatively designs a dual-path parallel architecture in the trajectory prediction module, efficiently capturing long-range temporal dependencies through the linear scaling capability of the Mamba branch while leveraging the powerful global modeling capability of the Transformer branch to extract macroscopic trajectory patterns. Deep fusion is achieved through a hierarchical multi-head attention module designed in this work, thereby effectively capturing both local navigation details and global trajectory patterns simultaneously. Furthermore, recognizing that real-time trajectory prediction poses higher privacy leakage risks compared to delayed publication, the proposed scheme introduces a differential privacy mechanism at the model output layer, with a time-decay-based privacy budget allocation strategy that significantly enhances the utility of published trajectories under privacy protection. Experimental results on the Danish maritime dataset demonstrate that the proposed scheme achieves substantial improvements in ship trajectory prediction accuracy over existing methods while providing rigorous privacy guarantees for high-precision predictions through a flexible differential privacy mechanism.

Key words

Ship trajectory prediction / Privacy protection / Mamba / Transformer / Differential privacy

Cite this article

Download Citations
Huang Zhao-ran, Yan Yan, Yuan Hang. Ship Trajectory Prediction and Privacy Protection Scheme based on Mamba-Transformer[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University. 2025, 51(4): 10-21

References

[1]ZHANG X J, MU L M, ZHAO J, et al. An efficient anonymous authentication scheme with secure communication in intelligent vehicular ad-hoc networks[J]. KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS), 2019, 13(6): 3280-3298.
[2]高天航, 徐力, 靳廉洁, 等. 考虑航艏向与数据变化差异的船舶轨迹预测[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2021, 21(01): 90-94.
GAO T H, XU L, JIN L J, et al. Ship trajectory prediction considering bow direction and data variation differences[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(01): 90-94. (in Chinese)
[3]SABER S M, THOWAI K Z, RAHMAN M A, et al. High-accuracy prediction of vessels’ estimated time of arrival in seaports: A hybrid machine learning approach[J]. Maritime Transport Research, 2025, 8: 100133.
[4]SU M, SU Z Q, CAO S L, et al. Fuel consumption prediction and optimization model for pure car/truck transport ships[J]. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 2023, 11(6): 1231.
[5]TSVETKOVA A, HELLSTRÖM M. Creating value through autonomous shipping: an ecosystem perspective[J]. Maritime Economics & Logistics, 2022, 24(2): 255-277.
[6]MURRAY B, PERERA L P. An AIS-based deep learning framework for regional ship behavior prediction[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2021, 215: 107819.
[7]吴春鹏, 冯姣. 结合 AMS 的 C-LSTM 船舶轨迹预测[J]. 船海工程, 2021, 50(6): 141-146,152.
WU C P, FENG J. C-LSTM ship trajectory prediction combined with AMS[J]. Ship & Ocean Engineering, 2021, 50(6): 141-146,152. (in Chinese)
[8]NAGHIZADE E, KULIK L, TANIN E, et al. Privacy-and context-aware release of trajectory data[J]. ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems (TSAS), 2020, 6(1): 1-25.
[9]ISSA M, ILINCA A, IBRAHIM H, et al. Maritime autonomous surface ships: Problems and challenges facing the regulatory process[J]. Sustainability, 2022, 14(23): 15630.
[10]WANG C, FU Y H. Ship trajectory prediction based on attention in bidirectional recurrent neural networks[C]//2020 5th International Conference on Information Science, Computer Technology and Transportation (ISCTT). IEEE, 2020: 529-533.
[11]LI X Y, LIU C S, LI J H, et al. Advancing ship trajectory prediction: Integrating deep learning with enhanced reference trajectory correction techniques[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2024, 311: 118880.
[12]LIU W, CAO Y. Research on Offshore Vessel Trajectory Prediction Based on PSO-CNN-RGRU-Attention[J]. Applied Sciences, 2025, 15(7): 3625.
[13]NGUYEN D, FABLET R. A transformer network with sparse augmented data representation and cross entropy loss for ais-based vessel trajectory prediction[J]. IEEE Access, 2024, 12: 21596-21609.
[14]YOU L, XIAO S Y, PENG Q X, et al. St-seq2seq: A spatio-temporal feature-optimized seq2seq model for short-term vessel trajectory prediction[J]. Ieee Access, 2020, 8: 218565-218574.
[15]WANG W T, XIONG W, OUYANG X, et al. TPTrans: Vessel Trajectory Prediction Model Based on Transformer Using AIS Data[J]. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2024, 13(11): 400.
[16]DWORK C, NAOR M, PITASSI T, et al. Differential privacy under continual observation[C]//Proceedings of the forty-second ACM symposium on Theory of computing. 2010: 715-724.
[17]ZHANG X, LUO Y L, YU Q Y, et al. Privacy-preserving method for trajectory data publication based on local preferential anonymity[J]. Information, 2023, 14(3): 157.
[18]SHEN Z H, ZHANG Y Y, WANG H, et al. BiGRU-DP: Improved differential privacy protection method for trajectory data publishing[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2024, 252: 124264.
[19]ZHANG J, HUANG Q H, HUANG Y R, et al. DP-TrajGAN: A privacy-aware trajectory generation model with differential privacy[J]. Future Generation Computer Systems, 2023, 142: 25-40.
[20]WANG Z H, KONG F H, FENG S, et al. Is mamba effective for time series forecasting?[J]. Neurocomputing, 2025, 619: 129178.
[21]HAMILTON J D. State-space models[J]. Handbook of econometrics, 1994, 4: 3039-3080.
[22]NGUYEN D, VADAINE R, HAJDUCH G, et al. GeoTrackNet—A maritime anomaly detector using probabilistic neural network representation of AIS tracks and a contrario detection[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2021, 23(6): 5655-5667.
[23]RADFORD A, NARASIMHAN K, SALIMANS T, et al. Improving language understanding by generative pre-training[J]. 2018.
[24]RONG H, TEIXEIRA A P, SOARES C G. Maritime traffic probabilistic prediction based on ship motion pattern extraction[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2022, 217: 108061.
[25]FARAHNAKIAN F, NEVALAINEN P, FARAHNAKIAN F, et al. Maritime vessel movement prediction: A temporal convolutional network model with optimal look-back window size determination[J]. Multimodal Transportation, 2025, 4(1): 100191.
[26]JIAO H, LI H H, LAM J S L, et al. Multi-factor influence-based ship trajectory prediction analysis via deep learning[J]. Journal of Marine Engineering & Technology, 2025: 1-19.

PDF(12186 KB)

Accesses

Citation

Detail

Sections
Recommended

/