This paper elaborated the development history of the container ship maxmization and the relationship with the economic development of port city. The causal relationship between the container ship size and the economic developmentwas analyzed by using the system dynamics theory with the causality diagram, the flow chart and the system simulation equations.Finally,based on the empirical research of Shenzhen city, system simulation and policy simulations were carried out. Results show that the increasing of container ship size can significantly promote its economic development of port city. It is satisfactory to study the relation between the increasing of container ship size and the economic development of port city by using system dynamics method.
WEN Wen-hua
,
FAN Hou-ming*
,
ZHANG Wen-jing
,
MA Meng-zhi
. System simulation on the relationship between the large container ships and the port city economic development[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2015
, 41(1)
: 61
-68
.
DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2015.01.012
［1］KUBY M, REID N. Technological change and the concentration of the US general cargo port system: 1970-88［J］. Economic Geography, 1992, 68: 272-272.
［2］McLELLAN R G. Bigger vessels: How big is too big?［J］. Maritime Policy and Management, 1997, 24(2): 193-211.
［3］LIM S M. Economies of scale in container shipping［J］. Maritime Policy & Management, 1998, 25(4): 361-373.
［4］BAIRD A J. Extending the lifecycle of container mainports in upstream urban locations［J］. Maritime Policy & Management.1997, 24:299-301.
［5］CULLINANE K, KHANNA M. Economies of scale in large container ships: optimal size and geographical implications［J］. Journal of Transport Geography, 2000, 8(3): 181-195.
［6］PAYER H. Economic and technical aspects of megacontainer carriers ［EB/OL］. (20021115) ［2014-10-21］.http://www.cepal.org/Transporte/perfil/iame_papers/proceedings/AgendaProceedings.html.
［7］HAM J C van. The feasibility of mega container vessels［J］. European Transport/Trasporti Europei, 2005(25-26): 89-98.
［8］俞宝均,杨燮庆,张良. 集装箱船大型化与国际集装箱枢纽港建设［J］. 集装箱化,1998(11):4-10.
YU Bao-jun, YANG Xie-qing, ZHANG Liang. Construction of large container ships and international container load center［J］.Containerization,1998(11): 4-10.(in Chinese)
［9］安筱鹏,韩增林,杨荫凯. 国际集装箱枢纽港的形成演化机理与发展模式研究［J］. 地理研究,2000(4):383-390.
AN Xiao-peng, HAN Zeng-lin, YANG Yin-kai. A study on the formation & evolvement mechanism and development mode of international container load center［J］. Geographical Research, 2000(4):383-390.(in Chinese)
［10］庄骅. 国际集装箱船舶大型化对世界集装箱港口发展的影响［J］. 上海船舶运输科学研究所学报, 2001, 24(1): 46-50.
ZHUANG Hua. The influence of large international container ships on the world’s container port development［J］. Journal of Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute, 2001, 24(1): 46-50.(in Chinese)
［11］张捷. 当代国际航运中心发展的新趋势——兼析上海国际航运中心的规划建设［J］. 城市规划汇刊,2001(5):72-75.
ZHANG Jie. New development trend of the international shipping center—planning and construction of Shanghai international shipping center［J］. Urban Planning Forum, 2001（5）:72-75.（in Chinese）
［12］徐剑华, 张锦. 船舶大型化对航运和港口的影响［J］. 中国航海, 2007 (2): 70-74.
XU Jian-hua, ZHANG Jin. Impact of large vessels on shipping and ports［J］. Navigation of China, 2007 (2): 70-74.（in Chinese）
［13］江少文. 集装箱船舶大型化对上海港发展的影响和机遇［J］. 中国航海, 2007(3): 022.
JIANG Shao-wen. Impact of large container ships on Shanghai port development and opportunities ［J］. Navigation of China, 2007(3): 022.(in Chinese)
［14］关腾飞. 集装箱船舶大型化对港口的影响分析［J］. 沿海企业与科技, 2009 (1): 92-95.
GUAN Teng-fei. Impact of large container ships on ports［J］. Coastal Enterprises and Science & Technology, 2009 (1): 92-95.(in Chinese)
［15］吴旗韬, 张虹鸥, 叶玉瑶, 等. 港口体系演化的影响因素及驱动机制分析［J］. 人文地理, 2011, 26(3): 106-110.[ZK)]
WU Qi-tao, ZHANG Hong-ou, YE Yu-yao, et al. Factors and driving mechanism of the port system evolution［J］. Human Geography, 2011,26(3) : 106-110.(in Chinese)
［16］罗跃华. 集装箱船舶的大型化发展趋势［J］. 水运管理, 2011, 33(7): 37-39.
LUO Yue-hua. Development trend of large container ships［J］.Shipping Management, 2011, 33(7): 37-39.(in Chinese)
［17］亦然, 洪钧. 略谈营口开埠设关及其经济地位的兴衰［J］. 社会科学辑刊,1993(2):95-101.
YI Ran, HONG Jun. The establishment of foreign trade port in Yingkou and rise and fall of its economic status［J］. Social Sciences Journal, 1993(2):95-101.(in Chinese)
［18］王小侠. 晚清营口港兴衰的环境思考［J］. 兰台世界,2009,23:49-50.
WANG Xiao-xia. Thinking of the environment of the rise and fall of Yingkou port in the late Qing Dynasty［J］.Lantai World,2009,23:49-50.(in Chinese)
［19］柯严. 洋山港是建设上海国际航运中心的合理选择［J］. 水运管理,1999(8):2-5.
KE Yan. Yangshan port, the reasonable choice of constructing Shanghai international shipping center［J］.Shipping Management,1999(8):2-5.(in Chinese)
［20］顾亚竹,袁章新. 加快上海枢纽港建设、促进城市经济的发展［J］. 中国航海,1995(1):57-62.
GU Ya-zhu ,YUAN Zhang-xin. Speed up the construction of Shanghai hub, to promote the development of city economy［J］. Navigation of China,1995(1):57-62.(in Chinese)
［21］COTOMILLN P, PINO J B, MATEOMANTECN I. Essays on port economics［M］. Berlin: Springer Science & Business Media, 2010: 201-234.
［22］CHEN Wen-sheng, CHEN Chia-yon, CHEN Fengchin, et al. The impact of the Taipei port container terminal on the northern region of Taiwan: A computable general equilibrium model［J］. Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 2011, 19(2): 120-126.
［23］谢伟杰. 基于系统动力学的交通运输与区域经济互动关系研究［D］.成都：西南交通大学,2011.
XIE Wei-jie. Interactive relationship research based on system dynamics of transportation and the region economy［D］. Chengdu: Southwest Jiaotong University,2011.(in Chinese）
