Journal of Dalian Maritime University >
2017 , Vol. 43 >Issue 1: 91 - 100
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2017.01.015
Dynamic evaluation model of port ecological carrying capacity based on system simulation
Received date: 2016-05-24
Revised date: 2016-07-28
Online published: 2016-07-28
In order to solve the problem of insufficient consideration of process mechanism and temporal dynamic in the study of port ecological carrying capacity, a comprehensive evaluation method of ecological carrying capacity was proposed, and the dynamic evaluation and prediction of evolutionary trend on port ecological capacity was realized. Firstly, a system dynamics model for port ecological carrying capacity was built from the aspects of social economy, resources and environment by using the theory of system dynamics. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation index system of port ecological carrying capacity was proposed by introducing the comprehensive evaluation method of ecological carrying capacity, and a multiple evaluation model for port ecological carrying capacity was set up. On this basis, taking a port in northern China as an example, the status analysis and parameter sensitivity analysis of ecological carrying states were conducted to identify the key impacting factors by using the multiple evaluation model. Then, the natural development plan and the comprehensive control plan were set up to simulate and evaluate dynamically the evolution trend of port ecological carrying states from 2015 to 2030. Results indicate that the comprehensive control plan can effectively solve the ecological overload problem in the port area and improve significantly the level of port ecological carrying states. The result can provide a theoretical basis for ecological port construction and restoration.
ZHANG Qi , ZHANG Jiao-feng , WANG Wen-yuan , SONG Xiang-qun , GUO Zi-jian . Dynamic evaluation model of port ecological carrying capacity based on system simulation[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2017 , 43(1) : 91 -100 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2017.01.015
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