Influence of the Northern Sea  Route on bilateral trade volume  

  • WANG Dan ,
  • ZHAO Yuan ,
  • ZHANG Hao
Expand
  • (1. Transportation Management College, Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;2. Terminal Handling Department, Dalian Container Terminal Co., Ltd, Dalian 116601,China)

Received date: 2016-11-01

  Revised date: 2017-01-06

  Online published: 2017-01-09

Abstract

In order to study the influence of the Northern Sea Route on bilateral trade volume, other explanatory variables, such as “population” and “shipping cost” were introduced based on the basic trade gravity model, and the panel data model was established by collecting related data of countries along the Northern Sea Route. Result shows that the trade volume between the two countries is positively correlated with the gross domestic product (GDP), negatively correlated with the transportation distance, and positively correlated with the population. The opening of Northeast channel can greatly promote bilateral trade volume between Northeast Asia and Western Europe countries. The volume of bilateral trade growth is more than 10% for China, Japan and Korea. Thereinto, the volume of trade growth of Japan is the largest, followed by Korea and China, which proved the commercial value of Northeast Passage.

Cite this article

WANG Dan , ZHAO Yuan , ZHANG Hao . Influence of the Northern Sea  Route on bilateral trade volume  [J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2017 , 43(2) : 81 -88 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2017.02.013

References

[1]王丹,张浩.北极通航对中国北方港口的影响及其应对策略研究[J].中国软科学,2014(3):16-31.
 WANG D, ZHANG H. Impact of the Arctic Passage’s opening on Chinese Northern Ports and China’s response[J]. China Soft Science, 2014(3):16-31.(in Chinese)
[2]李振福.北极航线的中国战略分析[J].中国软科学,2009(1):1-7.
 LI Z F. Analysis of China’s strategy on Arctic Route[J]. China Soft Science, 2009(1):1-7.(in Chinese)
[3]HONG N. The melting Arctic and its impact on China’s maritime transport[J].Research in Transportation Economics,2012,35(1):50-57.
[4]王杰,范文博.基于中欧航线的北极航道经济性分析[J].太平洋学报,2011,19(4):72-77.
 WANG J, FAN W B. An analysis of the economy of the Arctic Channel of China-EU navigation[J].Pacific Journal, 2011,19(4):72-77.(in Chinese)
[5]SCH-YEN H, BRATHEN S. The Northern Sea Route versus the Suez Canal: cases from bulk shipping[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2011,19(4):977-983.
[6]杨晓丹.北冰洋新航道开通对我国贸易格局的影响——基于引力模型及厂商异质理论的分析[D].上海:华东师范大学,2012.
 YANG X D.Study on the impact of New Arctic waterway opening to China’s trade pattern-analysis on gravity model and enterprise heterogeneity theory[D].Shanghai: East China Normal University,2012.(in Chinese)
[7]贺书锋,平瑛,张伟华.北极航道对中国贸易潜力的影响——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(8):3-12.
 HE S F,PING Y, ZHANG W H. Influence of Arctic Passage on China’s trade potential: an empirical research based on stochastic frontier gravity model[J].  Journal of International Trade, 2013(8):3-12.(in Chinese)
[8]孙艺萌.北极航线对我国对外贸易潜力的影响研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2014.
 SUN Y M. Study on the influence of the potential of China’s foreign trade by the Arctic Route[D].Dalian:Dalian Maritime University,2014.(in Chinese)
[ 9]姚明月,胡麦秀.北极“东北航道”开通对中欧贸易的影响——基于贸易引力模型分析[J].海洋经济,2014,4(5):9-15.
 YAO M Y,HU M X.Effect of the opening of Arctic Northeast Route on the China-EU—Trade based on the trade gravity model[J].Marine Economy,2014,4(5):9-15.(in Chinese)
[10]李珍,胡麦秀.“北极航道”开通与中国及其受影响区域的贸易增长潜力分析[J].极地研究,2015,27(4):429-438.
 LI Z,HU M X.The impact of using the Arctic Route on trade in China and its accessible areas[J].Chinese Journal of Polar Research,2015,27(4):429-438.(in Chinese)
[ 11]克拉克森情报网.Wider world view highlights some highs,and the lows[EB/OL].(2016-12-23)[2016-11-01].https://sin.clarksons.net/.
[12]LIU M J, KRONBAK J. The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2010,18(3):434-444.
Outlines

/