Journal of Dalian Maritime University >
2018 , Vol. 44 >Issue 2: 95 - 103
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2018.02.015
Study of dry bulk shipping market influence factors based on system dynamics
Received date: 2017-09-04
Revised date: 2017-11-17
Online published: 2017-11-17
To explore the operation mechanism and evolution rules of the dry bulk shipping market, the factors affecting the dry bulk cargo shipping market were deeply analyzed. The ship owner psychology, investment oriented shipbuilding order, shipping derivatives market were quantitatively introduced to build the dry bulk shipping market system dynamics model, and simulation analysis was carried out. Results show that world trade and China factor constitute two main influence factors of shipping demand, and the main influence factors of shipping supply were ship demolition, investment oriented shipbuilding order and shipbuilding delivery ratio. In addition, FFA trade volume was closely related to the BDI index fluctuation, and the fuel cost has no been an influence factor of BDI after 2009. Thus, the following suggestions have been proposed: during the sluggish market, the government can appropriately increase ship demolition subsidies to encourage ship renewal, the ship owners can negotiate with the shipyard to appropriately delay the ship delivery to reduce the growth rate of supply side, and ship owners and investors should reduce speculation behavior and invest rationally.
TANG Li-min , ZHANG Meng-yao , WANG Pan . Study of dry bulk shipping market influence factors based on system dynamics[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2018 , 44(2) : 95 -103 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2018.02.015
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