Reliability evaluation of LNG marine transportation based on evidence reasoning

  • NIU Dong-xiang ,
  • ZHANG Si-cong ,
  • XIE Xin-lian
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  • (1.Integrated Transport Institute, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026,China; 2. Guangdong Dapeng LNG Company, Shenzhen 518048,China)

Received date: 2018-05-16

  Revised date: 2018-06-17

  Online published: 2018-06-19

Abstract

Based on the connotation of transport reliability, the factors influencing the reliability of three stages, namely loading, navigation and unloading were analyzed, and a comprehensive evaluation index system for the reliability of LNG marine transportation was established. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the weights of each index, and the qualitative and quantitative indexes were fused by using evidence reasoning theory to realize the reliability comprehensive evaluation of different ships carrying out voyage transportation tasks. Taking Guangdong LNG project as an example to conduct the comprehensive evaluation for the voyage of LNG marine transportation, and the results verify the feasibility of the method, which can provide reference for plan optimization and reliability management of LNG marine transportation.

Cite this article

NIU Dong-xiang , ZHANG Si-cong , XIE Xin-lian . Reliability evaluation of LNG marine transportation based on evidence reasoning[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2018 , 44(4) : 55 -60 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2018.04.009

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