Human error risk analysis of coastal water collision accidents based on Fine-Kinney method of fuzzy rule base

  • YANG Bai-cheng ,
  • ZHAO Zhi-lei ,
  • CHEN Hai-li
Expand
  • (Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026,China)

Received date: 2018-08-21

  Revised date: 2018-09-28

  Online published: 2018-09-29

Abstract

The human error risk in collision accidents in coastal waters was analyzed by introducing a fuzzy rule base and traditional Fine-Kinney theory. According to the stratified results of contribution degree of each factor to collision accidents in coastal waters, the contribution value increases with the decrease of the refinement of management regulations and the increase of the difficulty of crew judgment. A priority algorithm was used to mine association rules for 424 samples of maritime accidents in Zhejiang coastal area from 2005 to 2014, and the collision accidents were selected as the former and human errors as the latter. Statistical software was used to compare and analyze the contribution value of each factor and confidence value in association rules, and it is proved that the analysis result of the proposed method is basically in line with the actual situation, which can be used in maritime risk analysis. For the first time, this method has been applied in the field of maritime affairs and can independently evaluate a single risk factor.

Cite this article

YANG Bai-cheng , ZHAO Zhi-lei , CHEN Hai-li . Human error risk analysis of coastal water collision accidents based on Fine-Kinney method of fuzzy rule base[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2019 , 45(1) : 40 -46 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2019.01.006

References

[1]刘正江,吴兆麟.基于船舶碰撞事故调查报告的人的因素数据挖掘[J].中国航海, 2004, 59(02):1-6 [2]Liu Zhengjiang, Wu Zhaolin.Data mining to human factors based on ship collision accident survey reports[J].Navigation of China, 2004, 59(02):1-6 [3]刘正江,吴兆麟.船舶碰撞事故中人为失误的灰色识别[J].大连海事大学学报, 2005, 31(1):1-5 [4]Liu Zhengjiang, Wu Zhaolin.Human factors gray relational analysis in ship collision accident[J].Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2005, 31(1):1-5 [5]李红喜,张连丰,郑中义.基于数据挖掘的船舶人为碰撞事故致因链研究[J].大连海事大学学报, 2014 , 1(2):10-12 [6]Li Hongxi, Zhang Lianfeng, Zheng Zhongyi.Causation chain of ship collision accident due to human error based on data mining technology[J].Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2014, 1(2):10-12 [7]王凤武,吴兆麟,齐壮,杨柏丞.基于概率影响图理论的恶劣天气条件下船舶开航安全性评估[J].大连海事大学学报, 2012, 1(4):12-14 [8]Wang Fengwu, Wu Zhaolin, Qi Zhuang, Yang Baicheng.Safety assessment of ship setting sail in heavy weather based on probability influence diagram 2012(4):12-14.[J].Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2012, 1(4):12-14 [9]陈锦标,陈婷婷,应士君,施朝健.基于事故树分析的深水工作船作业安全管理[J].中国航海, 2012, 1(2):45-49 [10]Chen Jinbiao, Chen Tingting, Ying Shijun, Shi Chaowei.Safety management of deep-water working vessels based on fault tree analysis[J].Navigation of China, 2012, 1(2):45-49 [11]Hakan Akyildiz, Ayhan Mentes.An integrated risk assessment based on uncertainty analysis for cargo vessel safety[J].Safety Science, 2017, 1(92):34-43 [12]Gurcanli, G.E., Bilir, S., Sevim, M. Activity based risk assessment and safety cost estimation for residential building construction projects[J].Safety Science, 2015, 1(80):1-12 [13]Ali Kokangül, Ulviye Polat, Cansu Dag?suyu.A new approximation for risk assessment using the AHP and Fine Kinney methodologies[J].Safety Science, 2017, 1(91):24-32 [14]Muhammet Gul, Erkan Celik.Fuzzy rule-based Fine–Kinney risk assessment approach for rail transportation systems[J].Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2018, 24(7):1786-1812 [15]Kinney GF, Wiruth AD.Practical risk analysis for safety management [Final Report]. [J]., 1976, :- [16]马建斌, 陈红玉.基于数据挖掘的船舶交通事故关联分析[J].船海工程, 2016, 45(A01):66-70 [17]Ma Jianbin, Chen Hongyu.The association analysis of vessel traffic accident based on data mining[J].Ship& Ocean engineering, 2016, 45(A01):66-70 [18]余静,蒋惠园,胡佳颖.基于贝叶斯网络的浙江沿海船舶通航风险分析[J].中国航海, 2018, 1(2):97-101 [19]Yu Jing, Jiang Huiyuan, Hu Jiaying.Navigation risk analysis for Zhejiang coastal waters with Bayesian network[J].Navigation of China, 2018, 1(2):97-101
Outlines

/