Ship scheme selection based on decision maker's limited rationality

SANG Hui-yun; XIE Xin-lian; WANG Bao-yi

doi:10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2019.02.008

Journal of Dalian Maritime University >

2019 , Vol. 45 >Issue 2: 58 - 64

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2019.02.008

Ship scheme selection based on decision maker's limited rationality

SANG Hui-yun ,
XIE Xin-lian ,
WANG Bao-yi

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(1. School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250000, China; 2. Integrated Transport Institute, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

Received date: 2018-11-19

Revised date: 2018-12-25

Online published: 2018-12-25

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Abstract

Based on the limited rationality of decision maker, a ship scheme optimization and selection model was proposed. Firstly, the particularity of the mentioned problem and the problems to be solved in the future research were analyzed in detail. Secondly, based on characteristic of limited rationality, the preference design theory and prospect theory were introduced. The decision maker’s preference and decisionmaking psychology was described quantitatively and qualitatively by using mathematical procedure . Based on the preference design theory, the Pareto solutions which represented designer’s preferences were produced, and the decision-making risk preference of decision-makers was edited by using the prospect theory, the ship form scheme was optimized based on Pareto. Then, with reference to rational numerical analysis, the numerical analysis results were revised based on the expected utility of the decision maker to produce the optimal ship type scheme which is in line with the actual decision-making situation. Finally, the validity of the method is verified by an example analysis.

Key words： ship type evaluation; limited rationality; preference design; physical programming; prospect theory

Cite this article

SANG Hui-yun , XIE Xin-lian , WANG Bao-yi . Ship scheme selection based on decision maker's limited rationality[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2019 , 45(2) : 58 -64 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2019.02.008

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