Spatio-temporal prediction of ship traffic flow in waterway regulation area based on regression&nbsp; Kalman Filter combination model

ZHANG Shi-yu; YANG Yu-hao; CHEN Chen; YANG Yun-chao; LI Fa-liang

doi:10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2021.01.005

2021 , Vol. 47 >Issue 1: 37 - 44

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2021.01.005

Spatio-temporal prediction of ship traffic flow in waterway regulation area based on regression Kalman Filter combination model

ZHANG Shi-yu ,
YANG Yu-hao ,
CHEN Chen ,
YANG Yun-chao ,
LI Fa-liang

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(School of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063,China)

Received date: 2020-11-15

Revised date: 2021-01-11

Online published: 2021-01-11

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Abstract

In order to analyze and predict the changes of ship traffic flow in different stages of waterway regulation area, by establishing the study section and obtaining traffic flow data, the spatio-temporal characteristics of ship traffic flow at the study section were analyzed. Based on the existing data, the state transition value in the Kalman filter model was replaced with the predicted value of the regression model to establish the combined regression Kalman filter model. On the basis of the real-time prediction of the Kalman filter model, the prediction accuracy was improved, and the historical data was used for prediction. By comparing the actual data and the prediction results, the validity and reliability of the regression Kalman filter combination model in the spatio-temporal prediction of ship traffic flow in waterway regulation area have been varified.

Key words： waterway regulation area; ship traffic flow; prediction of spatio-temporal characteristics; regression-Kalman filter combination model

Cite this article

ZHANG Shi-yu , YANG Yu-hao , CHEN Chen , YANG Yun-chao , LI Fa-liang . Spatio-temporal prediction of ship traffic flow in waterway regulation area based on regression Kalman Filter combination model[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2021 , 47(1) : 37 -44 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2021.01.005

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