Research on collision risk evaluation method considering ship avoidance ability

GAN Jiamin, YUAN Zhitao, CHEN Mozi, WU Xiaolie

doi:10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2025.01.006

Journal of Dalian Maritime University >

2025 , Vol. 51 >Issue 1: 54 - 62

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2025.01.006

Research on collision risk evaluation method considering ship avoidance ability

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（1. School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China;2.Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology, Wuhan 430063, China;3.Wuhan University of Technology, State Key Laboratory of Waterway Traffic Control and Safety，Wuhan 430063, China）

Received date: 2024-08-30

Revised date: 2024-08-30

Accepted date: 2024-08-30

Online published: 2024-08-30

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Abstract

To better guide ships in collision avoidance decision-making, a collision risk evaluation method considering the maneuvering capabilities of ships is proposed. By integrating AIS data, NOMOTO maneuvering motion equations, the COLREGS, and ship domain intrusion measurement model, two risk evaluation indicators related to the latest rudder application time and the safety avoidance angle set are established, namely Avoidance Difficulty (AD) and Avoidance Time Urgency (ATU), which evaluate the risk from spatial and temporal dimensions, respectively. Then, the CRITIC method is used to determine the weight of the two indicators. Finally, the effectiveness of the method is demonstrated through multi-risk comparison experiments in different scenarios using data from the outer waters of the Ningbo Zhoushan port area. The results indicate that the method takes into account the differences in maneuvering performance of various ships, the COLREGS, and the relative motion trends between ships, while paying special attention to the potential collision risk that may arise from avoidance maneuvers during the multi-ship risk assessment process, achieving a more reasonable evaluation of ship collision risk and has certain application value for ship collision avoidance decision-making.

Key words： collision risk; avoidance ability; ship domain; latest rudder application time; safety avoidance Angle set

Cite this article

GAN Jiamin, YUAN Zhitao, CHEN Mozi, WU Xiaolie . Research on collision risk evaluation method considering ship avoidance ability[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2025 , 51(1) : 54 -62 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2025.01.006

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