基于加权灰色系统的宁波水上交通事故致因和预测

郝庆龙,戴 冉,梁凯林,李东轩

大连海事大学学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4) : 35-37.

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PDF(333 KB)
大连海事大学学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4) : 35-37.
论著

基于加权灰色系统的宁波水上交通事故致因和预测

  • 郝庆龙,戴 冉,梁凯林,李东轩
作者信息 +

Maritime accident cause and prediction based  on the weighted grey system in Ningbo waters

  • HAO Qing-long, DAI Ran,  LIANG Kai-lin, LI Dong-xuan
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

运用灰色系统理论中加权灰色关联和预测的基本原理,对近5年宁波水上交通事故进行分析,按照各种事故类型、特点找出导致该水域水上交通事故发生的主要致因,并预测未来发展态势,提出对该水域通航安全的实践性建议.

Abstract

The paper uses weighted grey connection and prediction principle to analyze the maritime accident in the recent 5 years, and finds out the main cause according to the characteristics of different accident types. Finally, the paper predicts the future development trend and puts forward the practical suggestion for ship navigation safety in Ningbo waters.

关键词

宁波水域 / 水上交通事故 / 致因 / 预测 / 加权灰色系统

Key words

Ningbo waters / maritime accident / cause / prediction / weighted grey system

引用本文

导出引用
郝庆龙,戴 冉,梁凯林,李东轩. 基于加权灰色系统的宁波水上交通事故致因和预测[J]. 大连海事大学学报. 2013, 39(4): 35-37
HAO Qing-long, DAI Ran,  LIANG Kai-lin, LI Dong-xuan. Maritime accident cause and prediction based  on the weighted grey system in Ningbo waters[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University. 2013, 39(4): 35-37

参考文献

[1] 中华人民共和国宁波海事局. 2012年宁波海事局水上交通事故评估报告[R]. 2013. [2]史方敏, 陈林春. 宁波-舟山港水域船舶事故分析和预防措施探讨[J]. 浙江国际海运职业技术学院学报, 2008,4(4): 1- 5. SHI Fang-min, CHEN Lin-chun. On ship accidents and preventive measures in NingboZhoushan port waters [J].Journal of Zhejiang International Maritime College, 2008, 4(4): 1- 5.( in Chinese) [3黄胜华. 宁波辖区水上交通事故特征分析[D]. 大连:大连海事大学, 2010.  HUANG Sheng-hua. Ningbo jurisdiction analysis of characteristics of maritime accidents [D]. Dalian: Dalian Maritime University, 2010.( in Chinese) [4]郑中义, 吴兆麟, 杨丹. 港口船舶事故致因的灰色关联分析模型[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 1997,23(2): 61- 64. ZHENG Zhong-yi, WU Zhao-lin, YANG Dan. Ship accidents causes in port of grey correlation analysis model [J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 1997, 23(2): 61- 64.( in Chinese) [5]边海涛, 刘强, 孙建明, 等. 加权灰色关联分析在船舶事故分析中的应用[J]. 中国水运, 2012, 12(11):42- 44. BIAN Hai-tao, LIU Qiang, SUN Jian-ming, et al. Weighted grey correlation analysis in the application of the marine accident analysis [J]. China Water Transport, 2012,12(11):42- 44.( in Chinese) [6]杨华. 基于加权灰色系统预测模型的地面沉降研究[C]// 地理信息与物联网论坛暨江苏省测绘学会2010年学术年会. 南京:[s.n.],2010:338- 340. YANG Hua. Prediction model of land subsidence study based on the weighted grey system [C]// Geographic information with iot BBS and surveying and mapping institute of Jiangsu Academic Annual Conference in 2010. Nianjing:[s.n.],2010:338- 340.(in Chinese) [7]周世健, 赖志坤, 藏德彦 等. 加权灰色预测模型及其计算实现[J]. 武汉大学学报:信息科学版, 2002,27(5): 451- 455. ZHOU Shi-jian, LAI Zhi-kun, ZANG De-yan, et al. Weighted grey forecasting model and its calculation [J]. Wuhan University :Geomatics and Information Science, 2002, 27(5): 451- 455.( in Chinese) [8]吴祈宗. 系统工程[M]. 北京:北京理工大学出版社, 2006.

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