为定量分析三峡船闸通航状态，运用复杂系统科学理论与突变理论的广义模型方法，建立基于多层次和多指标的综合评价模型.首先，定性分析由船闸可靠性、船舶畅通性和管理高效性三个要素构成的船闸通航状态评价指标体系；然后，对三峡船闸通航状态系统的突变状态进行研究，进而建立基于燕尾突变模型的年度评价和基于蝴蝶突变模型的月度评价.运用2006年—2010年三峡船闸年报数据探讨突变理论在三峡船闸通航状态评价中的实证应用.
Abstract
To quantitatively assess the navigation situation of the three gorges ship lock, the paper applied complex system science theory and catastrophe theory method of the generalized model to establish multilevel and multiindex based comprehensive evaluation model. Firstly, the paper set up a comprehensive assessment index with lock reliability, ship accessibility and management efficient. And then, mutation status of three gorges navigation state system were studied, and yearly swallowtail catastrophe model and monthly butterfly catastrophe model were established. Data retrieved from yearly record from 2006 to 2010 is practically analyzed by using the proposed model.
关键词
三峡船闸 /
通航状态 /
突变理论 /
综合评价
Key words
three gorges ship lock /
navigation situation /
catastrophe theory /
comprehensive assessment
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参考文献
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基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目（51179147）；武汉理工大学自主创新研究基金资助项目（2013-YB-004）
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