气候变化时港口极端高水位重现期的预测分析

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大连海事大学学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4) : 42-46.

船舶与海洋工程

蔡永庆，周春辉^*，文元桥，杜磊

作者信息 +

Prediction analysis of return period of extreme high water level in port with climate change

CAI Yong-qing, ZHOU Chun-hui^*,WEN Yuan-qiao , DU Lei

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文章历史 +

摘要

以IPCC第五次评估报告发布的气候情景RCP2.6为背景，利用浙江乍浦1954—2012年的最高潮位数据建立灰色均生函数模型，对乍浦未来几十年的最高水位进行预测，通过耿贝尔曲线法计算海平面上升不同情况下的极端高水位的重现期.结果表明：灰色均生函数模型在极端高水位的模拟和预测方面具有较高的精度，但其对极值的预测略有欠缺，更适用于平均态的预测；随着气候的变化，极端高水位的重现期发生明显变化，二三十年后原百年一遇的极端高水位可能变为二三十年左右一遇.

Abstract

Taking the climate scenarios RCP2.6 released by IPCC AR5 as background, the highest water level of ZHAPU in the coming decades was predicted by using model of greymean generating function based on the highest water level data of ZHAPU in Zhejiang province during 1995 to 2012, and the recurrence intervals of the extreme high water level of ZHAPU during different predictive periods were calculated by Gumbel curve method according to different sea level rise situations. Results show that the model of greymean generating function has higher accuracy and variability in simulation and prediction of extreme high water level, but there is a slight lack of forecasting extreme value, and it is more suitable for average state forecast. The recurrence period of extreme high water level is going to change dramatically with climate change, and after two or three decades, the return period of extreme high water level maybe change from a hundred year to twenty or thirty years or so.

导出引用

蔡永庆,周春辉,文元桥,杜磊. 气候变化时港口极端高水位重现期的预测分析[J]. 大连海事大学学报. 2015, 41(4): 42-46

CAI Yong-qing,ZHOU Chun-hui,WEN Yuan-qiao,DU Lei. Prediction analysis of return period of extreme high water level in port with climate change[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University. 2015, 41(4): 42-46

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