交通运输工程

北极东北航道LNG运输经济性与前景分析

  • 骆巧云 ,
  • 寿建敏
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  • (上海海事大学  科学研究院,上海 201306)
骆巧云(1990-),女,硕士生,研究方向:港口产业规划及管理.

收稿日期: 2016-01-28

  修回日期: 2016-03-25

  网络出版日期: 2016-03-25

基金资助

上海市浦江人才计划( 08-PJC-037) ;国家海洋局海洋公益性行业科研专项(201205007-6);上海海事大学研究生学术新人培育项目(YXR2015064.

Economic viability and prospects of LNG transportation through the Arctic Northeast passage

  • LUO Qiao-yun ,
  • SHOU Jian-min
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  • (Scientific Research Academy,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

Received date: 2016-01-28

  Revised date: 2016-03-25

  Online published: 2016-03-25

摘要

在分析北极资源的基础上,结合我国天然气供需、进口状况和北极航道通航环境分析,对通过北极东北航道和通过传统航线运输LNG的经济性进行比较,并从航线里程、航次、运输成本三方面论证北极东北航道LNG运输的经济性.采用敏感性分析方法探究航运环境各因素变化对北极航道航运成本的影响,展望了未来发展前景. 研究表明:东北航道航程明显缩短,但全年航次增加不多,运输成本无突破性降低.

本文引用格式

骆巧云 , 寿建敏 . 北极东北航道LNG运输经济性与前景分析[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2016 , 42(3) : 49 -55 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2016.03.009

Abstract

Based on the analysis of resources in the Arctic regions, the economy of LNG transportation through the Arctic Northeast passage was compared with that of the traditional route according to natural gas supply and demand, import conditions and navigation environment of the Arctic routes. The economy of LNG transportation through the Arctic Northeast passage was discussed in consideration of routes, voyage or flight number, and transport cost. By using sensitivity analysis method, the influences of shipping environment changes on cost of the Arctic Northeast passage were discussed, as well as the prospects. Result shows that the Northeast passage distance shortens obviously, but the year voyage increase is not obviously, and the transportation costs reduce no largely.

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