大连海事大学学报 >
2016 , Vol. 42 >Issue 4: 41 - 46
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2016.04.007
考虑周期性波动因素的船舶交通流量预测模型
收稿日期: 2016-04-01
修回日期: 2016-06-08
网络出版日期: 2016-06-08
基金资助
江苏省高校教育科学研究项目（2015SJB326）.
Prediction model of ship traffic flow based on periodic fluctuation factors
Received date: 2016-04-01
Revised date: 2016-06-08
Online published: 2016-06-08
张树奎 , 肖英杰 . 考虑周期性波动因素的船舶交通流量预测模型[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2016 , 42(4) : 41 -46 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2016.04.007
In order to improve prediction accuracy of ship traffic flow, an improved model was developed to predict ship traffic flow based on linear growth model in consideration of all periodic fluctuation factors, such as season, climate, and so on, then the Bayesian estimation and prediction were used to solve the new model, and ship traffic flow was predicted by using the time series data of ship traffic flow. Results show that the proposed model more accords with the actual situation of traffic flow comparing with the linear growth model, and the mean absolute error of monthly ship flow decreases 3.56%, and the standard deviation decreases 3.79%, therefore, it is effective to predict ship traffic flow.
Key words： ship traffic flow; periodic fluctuation; linear growth model; prediction
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