交通运输工程

中国LNG进口海上运输通道安全评价

  • 孙家庆 ,
  • 孙倩雯 ,
  • 许红香
展开
  • (大连海事大学 交通运输管理学院,辽宁 大连 116026)
孙家庆(1963–),男,硕士,教授,E-mail:dlmusjq@163.com.

收稿日期: 2016-07-04

  修回日期: 2016-10-07

  网络出版日期: 2016-10-08

基金资助

国家社会科学基金资助项目(13BGJ031).

Safety evaluation of China’s LNG maritime import transport corridor

  • SUN Jia-qing ,
  • SUN Qian-wen ,
  • XU Hong-xiang
Expand
  • (Transportation Management College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

Received date: 2016-07-04

  Revised date: 2016-10-07

  Online published: 2016-10-08

摘要

建立安全评价指标体系,运用投影寻踪方法构建安全评价模型,通过基于实数编码的遗传算法求解,得到最优的投影方向及综合投影结果.评价结果表明,澳大利亚—大鹏及澳大利亚—唐山通道安全状况较好,其次为马来西亚—洋山、澳大利亚—珠海、澳大利亚—大连,而卡塔尔—如东、卡塔尔—天津、也门—洋山通道进口LNG海上运输的安全性较差.评价结果与现状相符,这为相关部门制订我国LNG进口海上运输安全保障措施提供了科学依据.

本文引用格式

孙家庆 , 孙倩雯 , 许红香 . 中国LNG进口海上运输通道安全评价[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2017 , 43(1) : 72 -78 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2017.01.012

Abstract

An index system of safety evaluation was established, and the model of safety evaluation was established by using projection pursuit and the genetic algorithm based on real coding was used for solution. In result, the optimal projection direction and the comprehensive projection result produce. The evaluation results show that the security status of Australia-Dapeng and Australia-Tangshan corridor is better, followed by Malaysia-Yangshan, Australia-Zhuhai and Australia-Dalian, and the security status of Qatar-Rudong, Qatar-Tianjin, Yemen-Yangshan is poor. The results are consistent with the safety status of each transport corridor, which provide the scientific basis for the relevant departments to make the safety arrangement of LNG import marine transport security.

参考文献

[1] 黄涛.LNG运输航线风险评估及航线配船研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2012.
HUANG Tao. Research on risk assessment and shipping arrangement of LNG transport routes[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University of Technology,2012.(in Chinese)
[2] 鲁平.我国LNG海上运输安全评价[D].大连:大连海事大学,2013.
LU Ping.LNG shipping safety evaluation in China[D].Dalian:Dalian Maritime University,2013.(in Chinese)
[3]KURONEN J,TAPANINEN U. Evaluation of maritime safety policy instruments[J].WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs,2010, 9(1):45-61.
[4]COQ C L ,PALTSEVA E.  Assessing gas transit risks:Russia vs the EU[J].Energy Policy,2012,42(2):642-650.
[5]ZHANG Hai-ying,JI Qiang,FAN Ying.An evaluation framework for oil import security based on the supply chain with a case study focused on China[J].Energy Economics,2013,38:87–95.
[6]USTER H ,DILAVEROGLU S . Optimization for design and operation of natural gas transmission networks[J].Applied Energy,2014,133(133):56-69.
[7]SHAFFER B. Natural gas supply stability and foreign policy[J].Energy Policy,2013,56(2):114-125.
[8] 张罕育.我国进口原油海上运输安全系统评价及预警研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2013.
ZHANG Han-yu.Study on the evaluation and early warning of China’s seaborne crude oil imports security system[D].Dalian: Dalian Maritime University,2013.(in Chinese)
[9] MARTCHAMADOL J ,KUMAR S. Thailand’s energy security indicators[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2012,16(8):6103-6122.
[10]CABALU H .Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(1):218-225.
[11]WHITMORE W D,BAXTER V K,LASKA S L. A critique of offshore liquefied natural gas(LNG) terminal policy[J]. Ocean & Coastal Management,2009,52(1):10-16.
[12] 吕靖,王爽.我国海上运输关键节点安全评价研究 [J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,15(1):31-36.
LV Jing, WANG Shuang. Safety evaluation of China’s maritime transport key nodes[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2015,15(1):31-36.(in Chinese)

文章导航

/