为研究“冰上丝绸之路”——北极航线船舶安全通航状况，特别是在有破冰船开道情况下，跟驰船舶与破冰船的安全间距以及跟驰船舶之间的安全间距问题，基于陆上交通流理论的跟驰模型，分析北极航线船舶的航行阻力即船舶水流阻力、船舶兴波阻力、碎冰阻力以及船舶制动性能，建立适用于北极航线的交通流跟驰模型，给出船舶安全间距、船头间距、船舶跟驰速度的公式，并结合“永盛”轮的具体资料和数据，进行模型参数验证和模型应用.结果表明，本文建立的适于北极航线的跟驰模型具有一定的现实意义，可有效降低凭借航行经验产生的航行风险，可为北极航线的船舶安全航行提供支持.

In order to study the safe navigation condition of “Polar Silk Road”—the Arctic route，especially the safety distance between following ships and icebreaker, and the safety distance between following ships in the case of an icebreaker operating, the navigation resistances of ships, i.e. ship water resistance, ship wavemaking resistance, ice breaking resistance and ship braking performance on the Arctic route were analyzed to establish a traffic flow following model for Arctic routes based on the following model of the landbased traffic flow theory, and put forward the formula of safety distance of ships, the bow spacing and the speed of ship following. By using the specific information and data of “Yong-Sheng”, the model parameters were verified and the models were applied. Results show that the following model for the Arctic route has certain practical significance, which can effectively reduce the risk of navigation by virtue of navigation experience and provide support for the safe navigation of the Arctic route.