针对珠江口通航水域的交通安全状况，基于动态船舶领域及相关计算模型，建立船舶航行密度、交通冲突和矢量动能风险子模型,并且通过挖掘分析事故数据和船舶动态数据，对载运易发生事故的特殊货物船舶进行附加风险加权; 然后,对四项风险因子进行耦合，建立系统性的珠江口通航风险评估模型;最后,针对水域内船舶实时营运状态，率定相关计算参数，运用该耦合模型计算得出“珠江口通航风险综合指数”，并将风险指数分为4级.验证分析表明，该通航风险评估模型比较客观实际，可为海事监管提供技术支撑.

According to the traffic safety situation in the navigation waters of the Pearl River Estuary, the sub models of ship navigation density, traffic conflict and vector kinetic energy risk were established based on the dynamic ship domain and relevant calculation models, and by mining and analyzing accident data and ship dynamic data, additional risk weighting was carried out for special cargo ships that are prone to accidents. Then, four risk factors were coupled to establish a systematic risk assessment model for the navigation of the Pearl River Estuary. Finally, according to the realtime operation status of ships in the water area, the relevant calculation parameters were calibrated, and the “Pearl River Estuary navigation risk comprehensive index” was calculated by using the coupling model, and the risk index was divided into four levels. The verification analysis shows that the navigation risk assessment model is objective and practical, which can provide technical support for maritime supervision.