调查大连港集装箱码头连续3年10 280个航班的到港时间记录，分析集装箱班轮实际到港时间与船期的偏差规律，证明集装箱班轮晚班到港概率服从伽马分布，并提出利用该特性优化泊位计划的思路和方法.以大连港为案例，对泊位计划进行优化, 结果可使泊位前后航班时间间隔损失平均减少5.58 h，航班靠泊发生冲突概率平均减少9.47%. 实例证明了该方法的有效性和实用性.
Through 10 280 flights recordings of ship arrival in Dalian container terminal in three consecutive years, the deviation rule of the actual arrival and the schedule were analyzed, which proved that the probability of late flight based on container liner operation obeys gamma distribution. Some ideas and method were put forward using the proposed features for optimization of berth planning, and taking Dalian port as example, the berth planning was optimized. Results show that the loss of flight time interval is reduced by an average of 5.58 hours, and the probability of flight conflict is reduced by an average of 9.47%, which prove the validity and practicability of the proposed method.
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