大连海事大学学报 >

2021 , Vol. 47 >Issue 1: 92 - 100

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2021.01.011

交通运输工程

基于模糊动态故障树的油气储运火灾事故应急过程致因因素评价

  • 袁长峰 ,
  • 张玉龙 ,
  • 呼义超 ,
  • 左韬 ,
  • 王佳荟 ,
  • 樊双蛟
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  • (1.大连海事大学 航运经济与管理学院，辽宁 大连 116026；2.大连工业大学 机械工程与自动化学院，辽宁 大连 116034)
袁长峰（1975 — ），女，博士，副教授，E-mail：ycf1028@dlmu.edu.cn.

收稿日期: 2020-10-18

  修回日期: 2021-01-05

  网络出版日期: 2021-01-05

基金资助

国家自然科学基金资助项目（51404052；71571025；71774019）；教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目（17YJAZH115）.

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Evaluation on causal factors in emergency processes of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation based on fuzzy dynamic fault tree

  • YUAN Chang-feng ,
  • ZHANG Yu-long ,
  • HU Yi-chao ,
  • ZUO Tao ,
  • WANG Jia-hui ,
  • FAN Shuang-jiao
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  • (1.School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China;2. School of Mechanical Engineering and Automation，Dalian Polytechnic University, Dalian 116026,China)

Received date: 2020-10-18

  Revised date: 2021-01-05

  Online published: 2021-01-05

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摘要

为保障油气储运系统安全, 从应急过程安全视角出发，提出基于模糊动态故障树（FDFT）的油气储运火灾事故应急过程致因因素分析方法.通过对实际事故统计分析，总结出21个致因因素.建立二次事故的FDFT模型，分别对模糊静态子树（FSST）和模糊动态子树（FDST）进行定量分析,计算出顶事件的模糊发生概率以及各基本事件的模糊关键重要度和模糊概率重要度，找出导致二次事故发生影响概率较大的因素和最有可能发生的途径，总结了应急过程中可能存在的问题.通过对大连港实际事故的分析，验证了所提方法的有效性.研究结果对揭示油储系统应急过程二次事故演变机理，保障油储系统安全运行管理具有重要的科学和指导意义.

关键词： 油气储运; 火灾事故; 应急过程; 致因因素; 模糊动态故障树

本文引用格式

袁长峰 , 张玉龙 , 呼义超 , 左韬 , 王佳荟 , 樊双蛟 . 基于模糊动态故障树的油气储运火灾事故应急过程致因因素评价[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2021 , 47(1) : 92 -100 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2021.01.011

Abstract

 In order to ensure the safety of oil-gas storage and transportation system, from the perspective of the emergency processes safety, an analysis method based on fuzzy dynamic fault tree (FDFT) was proposed to analyze the causal factors of fire accidents in the emergency processes for oil-gas storage and transportation. Twenty-one causal factors were summarized according to the statistical analysis of actual accident cases. The FDFT model of the secondary accidents was established, and the fuzzy static subtree (FSST) and fuzzy dynamic subtree (FDST) were quantitatively analyzed, the fuzzy probability of the top event and the fuzzy critical importance and fuzzy probability importance of each basic event were calculated. The factors that lead to the higher probability of the secondary accident and the most likely way were found out. The possible problems in the emergency process were summarized. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by analyzing the actual accidents in Dalian port. The research results have important scientific and guiding significance for revealing the evolution mechanism of secondary accidents in the emergency process of oil storage system and ensuring the safe operation and management of oil storage system.

Key words： oil-gas storage and transportation; fire accident; emergency processes; causal factors; fuzzy dynamic fault tree

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