21世纪海上丝绸之&middot;沿线国家港口投资风险评价

孙家庆; 韩兴华; 马悦超; 郭春升

doi:10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2021.02.013

大连海事大学学报 >

2021 , Vol. 47 >Issue 2: 115 - 125

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2021.02.013

交通运输工程

21世纪海上丝绸之·沿线国家港口投资风险评价

孙家庆 ,
韩兴华 ,
马悦超 ,
郭春升

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（大连海事大学交通运输工程学院，辽宁大连 116026）

孙家庆*（1963 — ），男，教授，博士生导师，E-mail：dlmusjq@163.com.

收稿日期: 2020-12-09

修回日期: 2021-02-05

网络出版日期: 2021-02-05

基金资助

国家社会科学基金资助项目（19BGJ023）；2021年度辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题（20211slzdkt-005）.

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Risk assessment of port investment in countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

SUN Jia-Qing ,
HAN Xing-Hua ,
MA Yue-Chao ,
GUO Chun-Sheng

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(Transportation Engineering College ,Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

Received date: 2020-12-09

Revised date: 2021-02-05

Online published: 2021-02-05

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摘要

为科学划分21世纪海上丝绸之·沿线国家港口投资风险等级，在综合相关国内外研究文献、《中国海外投资国家风险等级》报告及专家访谈意见的基础上构建海外港口投资风险评价指标体系；运用博弈论方法对层次分析法和熵权法所确定的权重进行组合优化形成综合权重，引入改进的联系度公式划分港口投资风险等级，并据此构建基于博弈论和集对分析的港口投资风险评价模型. 将沿线20个主要国家港口投资风险评价结果与相关文献进行比较，结果表明，模型确定的主要风险影响因子和风险等级符合实际情况，可为海外港口投资提供一定的参考.

关键词： 21世纪海上丝绸之·; 海外港口投资; 风险评价; 博弈论; 集对分析(SPA); 改进联系度

本文引用格式

孙家庆 , 韩兴华 , 马悦超 , 郭春升 . 21世纪海上丝绸之·沿线国家港口投资风险评价[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2021 , 47(2) : 115 -125 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2021.02.013

Abstract

In order to scientifically classify the risk level of port investment in countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, this paper constructed the risk evaluation index system of overseas port investment on the basis of the relevant domestic and foreign research literature, the report of “National Risk Levels of China’s Overseas Investment” and expert interviews. By using game theory, the weights originated from AHP and entropy weight method were combined and optimized to form a comprehensive weight, and the improved connection degree formula was introduced to divide the risk level of port investment, and the risk evaluation model of port investment based on game theory and set pair analysis was constructed. The port investment risk evaluation results of 20 major countries along the line ware compared with the relevant literature, and the results show that the main risk factors and risk levels determined by the model are in line with the actual situation, which can provide some reference for overseas port investment.

Key words： ?the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road; overseas port investment; risk assessment; game theory; set pair analysis(SPA); improved connection degree

参考文献

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