针对海上自主水面船舶(MASS)发展过程中可能出现的人为失误问题,从风险识别和风险评估的角度提出L2 级 MASS 避碰过程中人为失误风险识别方法和评估模
型。 首先,基于层次任务分析法(HTA)获得 MASS 避碰过程中远程操作人员和在船船员的关键任务,利用问题解决和决策制定模型( IDAC) 建立认知模型,分解避碰任务的各个操作阶段,识别避碰过程中可能存在的人为失误;其次,采用故障模式与影响分析( FMEA) 方法和证据推理(ER)对识别出的风险因素进行风险等级量化建模;最后,对 MASS 避碰过程中的人为失误进行风险量化和排序,并与现有研究成果进行对比分析,提出建议措施。 研究结果表明,决策阶段的人机系统交互不协调是 L2 级 MASS 避碰过程中最大的风险因素。

In view of the possible human errors in the development process of maritime autonomous surface ship (MASS), the identification method and evaluation model of human error risk in L2 level MASS collision avoidance process are proposed from the perspective of risk identification and risk assessment. Firstly, the critical tasks of the remote operators and crews in the MASS collision avoidance process were obtained based on the hierarchical task analysis method (HTA), and the problem solving and decision making model (IDAC) was used to establish the cognitive model to decompose each operation stage of collision avoidance task and identify the possible human errors in the collision avoidance process. Secondly, the failure mode and impact analysis (FMEA) method was used to model the risk level of the identified risk factors by combining evidence reasoning (ER). Finally, the risk of human error in MASS collision avoidance process is quantified and ranked, compared with the existing research results, and necessary suggestions are put forward. The results show that the biggest risk factor is the uncoordinated human-machine system interaction in the decision-making stage during L2 level MASS collision avoidance process.