为快速准确地预测客船人员疏散时间,将具有良好计算精度的疏散仿真模型与具有较高计算效率的 BP 人工神经网络模型相结合,提出一种快速预测客船人群疏散
时间的方法,以不同场景客船疏散仿真结果作为数据驱动,构建客船人群疏散时间的 BP 神经网络预测模型。 结果表明:该方法计算效率高,对不同疏散场景的预测相对误差为0. 9% ~ 3. 6%,可为客船应急管理提供决策依据和新的技术工具。

In  order to quickly  and accurately  predict the  evacuation time of passenger ships perso nnel, an e vacu ation simu-latio n mo del with good calculati on acc urac y wa s combined with a BP artifi ci al neura l ne twork m odel with h igh calculation effic ien cy, and a metho d for quickly pr edictin g th e ev acuation time of pas se nger ships was p roposed. B as ed on the simula-tion r esul ts of pa ssenger ships evacu ation i n d iffer ent scenari-os, a BP neural netwo rk predict ion model for the eva cuation time of p asse nger ships person nel was c onstructed. The results sho w th at the prop osed me thod has high cal culation eff iciency, an d t he prediction re lative e rror of differ ent evacuation sc enar-ios is 0. 9% ~ 3. 6%, which can provide decision-making basis and new technical tools for passenger ship emergency manage-ment.