基于关联规则挖掘和复杂网络理论的船舶碰撞事故影响因素分析

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  • (1. 大连海事大学 航海学院,辽宁 大连 116026;2. 利物浦约翰摩尔斯大学 LOOM研究所,英国 利物浦 L3 3AF)
冯胤伟(1999-),男,硕士生,E-mail: fyinwleo@dlmu.edu.cn;王新建*(1988 — ),男,博士,副教授,研究方向:航海安全保障,E-mail: wangxinjian@dlmu.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2023-06-04

  修回日期: 2023-07-25

  录用日期: 2023-07-25

  网络出版日期: 2023-08-29

基金资助

国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(52101399);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3132023138);大连海事大学博联科研基金项目(3132023617)

Analysis of factors affecting ship collisions based on association rule mining and complex network theory

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  • (1. Navigation College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China; 2. LOOM Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, London L3 3AF, UK)

Received date: 2023-06-04

  Revised date: 2023-07-25

  Accepted date: 2023-07-25

  Online published: 2023-08-29

摘要

为更加科学地分析船舶碰撞事故影响因素的交互关系,揭示船舶碰撞事故的演变机理,以全球船舶碰撞事故报告为依据,建立包含人为因素、船舶因素、管理因素、环境因素及事故时间等五类影响因素的船舶碰撞事故数据库;应用Apriori关联规则挖掘算法识别船舶碰撞事故影响因素间的频繁模式、关联、共现或因果关系,运用复杂网络理论将关联规则挖掘的结果可视化;应用拓扑特征分析方法,基于互信息理论的重要节点排序算法和基于边介数中心性的边排序算法实现关键影响因素和边的识别,对事故影响因素交互网络进行鲁棒性分析。结果表明,大部分船舶碰撞事故的影响因素较活跃且影响因素交互网络联系紧密,船舶吨位、船龄、航行水域等影响因素在交互信息传递时较为重要。

本文引用格式

冯胤伟, 刘正江, 蒋子怡, 夏国庆, 曹宇皓, 王新建, 王焕新 . 基于关联规则挖掘和复杂网络理论的船舶碰撞事故影响因素分析[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2023 , 49(3) : 31 -44 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2023.03.004

Abstract

 In order to analyze the interactive relationship between the influencing factors of ship collision accidents more scientifically and reveal the evolution mechanism of ship collision accidents, a ship collision accident database was established based on the global ship collision accident report, which included five types of influencing factors: human factors, ship factors, management factors, environmental factors, and accident time. The Apriori association rule mining algorithm was used to determine frequent patterns, associations, co-occurrences, and causal relationships among these influential factors. Visual representations of these results were obtained by using complex network theory. The topological analysis methods,  important node sorting algorithm based on mutual information theory and edge sorting algorithm based on the centrality of edge mediations were used to identify critical influential factors and edges within the network, and evaluate their robustness. The results indicate that the influencing factors of most ship collision accidents are relatively active and the interaction network of influencing factors is closely connected, and factors such as ship tonnage, age, and navigation water area are more important in interactive information transmission.

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