考虑多风险因素的北极东北航道航线规划

章文俊, 王昱, 牟聪瑞, 周翔宇, 孟祥坤, 杨雪, 吴中岱

doi:10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2024.02.001

大连海事大学学报 >

2024 , Vol. 50 >Issue 2: 1 - 10

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2024.02.001

考虑多风险因素的北极东北航道航线规划

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(1.大连海事大学航海学院，辽宁大连 116026；2.大连市自主航运安全技术重点实验室，辽宁大连 116026；3.上海船舶运输科学研究所有限公司，上海 200135)

章文俊*（1977 — ），男，博士，教授，博士生导师，E-mail：wenjunzhang@dlmu.edu.cn。王昱（1999 — ），男，硕士生，研究方向：交通信息工程及控制

网络出版日期: 2023-11-18

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目（2021YFC2801005）；辽宁省中央引导地方科技发展资金项目（2023JH6/100100055）；国家自然科学基金青年项目（52201408；52301416）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（3132023144；3132023130）

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Route planning of the Arctic Northeast Passage considering multiple risk factors

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(1. Navigation College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China; 2. Dalian Key Laboratory of Safety & Security Technology for Autonomous Shipping, Dalian 116026, China; 3. Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200135, China)

Online published: 2023-11-18

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摘要

鉴于北极航道冰情及地理环境的复杂性，船舶极地航行存在船冰碰撞及搁浅等风险，为保障船舶极地航行的安全性和经济性，提出了一种综合考虑水深、海冰密集度及海冰厚度等多风险因素的航线规划方法。首先，对于全局航线规划，采用极地操作限制评估风险指数系统（Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System，POLARIS）计算出北极安全水深区域的风险指数结果（Risk Index Outcome，RIO），将风险等级重分类赋值为风险成本，采用地理信息系统（Geographic Information System，GIS）最低成本路径分析法生成安全水深区域的最低风险成本航线作为全局推荐航线。其次，提取出航线各风险等级的栅格比例进行航线可行性评估。最后，考虑船舶航行时复杂多变的冰情条件下船冰碰撞风险，结合国际船级社协会（International Association of Classification Societies，IACS）极地级船舶操作限制对照表，针对全局航线沿途大于极地操作限制船舶航行最大海冰厚度的区域，融合改进A*与动态窗口法（Dynamic Window Approach，DWA）进行局部航线规划。对采取不同风险因素的全局及局部航线比较分析表明：本文所规划全局航线在避免搁浅的同时航行风险最低；船舶沿局部规划航线航行时能够针对阻塞航道的新生冰进行避碰决策。

关键词： 北极东北航道; POLARIS; 航线设计; 海冰厚度; 海冰密集度

本文引用格式

章文俊, 王昱, 牟聪瑞, 周翔宇, 孟祥坤, 杨雪, 吴中岱 . 考虑多风险因素的北极东北航道航线规划[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2024 , 50(2) : 1 -10 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2024.02.001

Abstract

In view of the complexity of the ice situation and geographical environment of the Arctic shipping route, there are risks such as ship ice collision and grounding in polar navigation. In order to ensure the safety and economy of ship polar navigation, a route planning method that comprehensively considered multiple risk factors such as water depth, sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness was proposed. Firstly, for the global route planning, the polar operational limit assessment risk indexing system (POLARIS) was adopted to calculate the risk index outcome (RIO) of the Arctic safe water depth region, thereby reclassifying the risk grade and assigning it to risk cost. The lowest risk cost route in the safe water depth region was generated by geographic information system (GIS) lowest cost path analysis method and was recommended as the global route. Secondly, the grid proportion of each risk level was extracted to evaluate the feasibility of the route. Finally, for the sea ice area along the global route that was larger than the maximum ice thickness of the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) polar class ship operating restrictions comparison table, the local route planning was carried out by combining with the improved A* and the dynamic window approach (DWA), thereby considering the risk of ship-ice collision under complex and variable ice conditions. The comparison of global and local routes with different risk factors shows that the global routes planned in this paper have the lowest risk with grounding avoidance, in addition that the ship can make collision-avoidance decision against the new ice blocking the channel when sailing along the local planned route.

Key words： Arctic northeast passage; POLARIS; route design; sea ice thickness; sea ice concentration

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