考虑恐慌情绪影响的客船人员疏散模型

张晓, 谢启苗, 王亦田

doi:10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2024.03.013

大连海事大学学报 >

2024 , Vol. 50 >Issue 3: 113 - 121

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2024.03.013

考虑恐慌情绪影响的客船人员疏散模型

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（1.上海海事大学海洋科学与工程学院，上海 201306；2.合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院，合肥 230009；3.上海外高桥造船有限公司，上海 200137）

张晓(1998 — )，女，硕士生，研究方向：客船人员疏散与应急管理。谢启苗*(1986 — )，女，博士，副教授，研究方向：客船人员疏散与应急管理。王亦田(1995 — )，男，本科，研究方向：船舶海工热安全与防护技术。 E-mail：qmxie@shmtu.edu.cn。

网络出版日期: 2024-03-02

基金资助

国家自然科学基金资助项目（71503166）; 中国博士后科学基金资助项目（2021M690851）

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A passenger ship evacuation model considering the influence of panic emotion

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(1. College of Marine Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China ;2. School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China; 3. Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., LTD, Shanghai 200137, China )

Online published: 2024-03-02

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摘要

为研究客船人员恐慌情绪传播的影响，基于人格OCEAN模型和SEIRS传染病模型，建立P-SEIRS恐慌情绪感染模型，结合Anylogic疏散仿真软件建立考虑恐慌情绪感染的人员疏散模型，分析恐慌情绪传播下客船人员的疏散过程，探究初始恐慌人员比例、敏感度、设备干预及引导者数量对恐慌情绪传播和疏散效率的影响。仿真结果表明：恐慌人员会加剧拥堵状况，导致疏散时间增加；人群敏感度越高，恐慌情绪传播越快，疏散过程中会产生更多恐慌行人；设备干预及适量的引导者有利于提高乘客的疏散效率，但过多的引导者则会延长疏散时间。

关键词： 客船人员; 疏散模型; 恐慌情绪; P-SEIRS模型; Anylogic仿真软件

本文引用格式

张晓, 谢启苗, 王亦田 . 考虑恐慌情绪影响的客船人员疏散模型[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2024 , 50(3) : 113 -121 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2024.03.013

Abstract

In order to study the influence of panic emotion transmission among passenger ship personnel, a P-SEIRS panic emotion infection model was established based on the personality OCEAN model and SEIRS infectious disease model. A personnel evacuation model considering panic emotion infection was established by using Anylogic evacuation simulation software, the evacuation process of passenger ship personnel under panic emotion transmission was analyzed, and the influence of initial panic personnel proportion, sensitivity, equipment intervention, and number of guides on panic emotion transmission and evacuation efficiency was explored. The simulation results show that panicked individuals will exacerbate congestion, leading to an increase in evacuation time; the higher the sensitivity of the crowd, the faster the spread of panic emotions, and more panicked pedestrians will be generated during the evacuation process; equipment intervention and appropriate guidance are beneficial for improving passenger evacuation efficiency, but excessive guidance can prolong evacuation time.

Key words： passenger ship personnel;evacuation model;panic emotion; P-SEIRS model; Anylogic simulation software

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