基于CVaR风险测度的出口海陆仓质押融资决策

展开
  •  (大连海事大学,交通运输工程学院,辽宁,大连,116026) 
杨华龙*(1964 — ),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,E-mail: hlyang@dlmu.edu.cn。马爽(2002 — ),女,硕士生,研究方向:供应链金融。彭翀(1999 — ),男,硕士生,研究方向:海运物流。

网络出版日期: 2025-01-15

基金资助

国家自然科学基金资助项目(72071024)

Decision-making on exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing based on CVaR risk measurement 

Expand
  • (Transportation Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

Online published: 2025-01-15

摘要

针对需求不确定性下的出口海陆仓质押融资风险问题。运用双重Stackelberg主从博弈原理,构造了进口商、出口商、海运公司三方的利润函数。利用CVaR风险测度方法,以供应链整体利润最大化为目标,建立了风险测度下的海陆仓融资优化模型,论证分析了海运公司质押率、出口商交货提前期和进口商订货批量等最优决策结果。研究表明,进口商订货批量、出口商交货提前期随着海运物流公司质押率的增大而减小,海运公司最优质押率与出口商风险规避系数、海运公司质押服务费率以及质押物市场售价均呈负相关,与进口商的风险规避系数、进口商进价均呈正相关。研究结论可为出口海陆仓质押融资各方提供有益的决策参考。

本文引用格式

杨华龙, 马爽, 彭翀 . 基于CVaR风险测度的出口海陆仓质押融资决策[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2025 , 51(1) : 120 -129 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2025.01.013

Abstract

 This paper studies the exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing risk problem with high demand uncertainty. Applying the principle of double Stackelberg master-slave game, profit functions of importer, exporter and shipping company were constructed. Employing the conditional value at risk (CVaR) measurement method, an optimization model of exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing under risk measurement was established, where the overall profit of the supply chain was maximized. Then, the optimal decision-making results such as the pledge rate of the shipping company, the exporter's delivery lead time and the importer's order quantity were demonstrated and analyzed. The study shows that the importer's order lot size and the exporter's delivery lead time decrease with the increase in the pledge rate of the maritime logistics company. The optimal pledge rate of the shipping company is negatively related to the risk aversion coefficient of the exporter, the pledge service fee rate of the shipping company, and the market selling price of the pledged goods, and positively related to the risk aversion coefficient of the importer and the import price of the importer. The findings of the research can provide useful decision-making references for all parties involved in exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing. 

参考文献

[1] HUANG S, FAN Z P, WANG X H. Optimal operational strategies of supply chain under financing service by a 3PL firm[J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2018, 57(11): 1-16. 
[2] GATT W. Loan-to-value limits as a macro-prudential policy tool: Developments in theory and practice[J]. Journal of Economic Surveys, 2024, 38(1): 232-267.
[3] 张燃, 徐爽, 王凤敏. 质押贷款质押率决定的期权定价方法[J]. 中国管理科学, 2013, 21(1): 16-22.
ZHANG Y, XU S, WANG F M. The option pricing method determined by the pledge rate of a pledged loan [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013, 21(1): 16-22. (in Chinese)
[4] LI T Y, FANG W G, WU D S, et al. Inventory financing a risk-averse newsvendor with strategic default[J]. Industrial Management & Data Systems, 2020, 120(5): 1003-1038.
[5] KOUVELIS P, QIU Y. Financing inventories with an investment efficiency objective: ROI-maximising newsvendor, bank loans and trade credit contracts[J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2022, 60(1): 136-161.
[6] JI J, ZHENG H, QI J, et al. Financial and logistical service strategy of third-party logistics enterprises in cross-border e-commerce environment[J]. Sustainability, 2023, 15(8): 68-74.
[7] CAO B; ZHONG Y G, ZHOU Y W. The role of completely joint liability in financing multiple capital-constrained firms: Risk sharing, inventory and financial strategies[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2023, 31(3): 1072-1087.
[8] 王滋承, 杨华龙, 周咏. 价格呈几何布朗运动规律的出口海陆仓质押率优化[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2017, 37(10): 2571-2581.
WANG Z C,YANG H L,ZHOU Y. The option pricing method determined by the pledge rate of a pledged loan [J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2017, 37(10): 2571-2581. (in Chinese)
[9] 周咏, 胡艳梅, 杨华龙, 等. 价格和需求不确定下存货融资质押率优化研究[J]. 系统工程学报, 2018, 33(1): 34-43.
ZHOU Y,HU Y M,YANG H L, et al. Research on the optimization of inventory financing pledge rate under uncertain price and demand[J]. ournal of Systems Engineering, 2018, 33(1): 34-43. (in Chinese)
[10] 计明军, 祁佳, 孔灵睿. 跨境电商环境下物流企业存货质押融资决策[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2021, 47(3): 59-67.
JI M J,QI J,LONG L R. Inventory pledge financing decision-making of logistics enterprises in the cross-border e-commerce environment[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2021, 47(3): 59-67. (in Chinese)
[11] 刁姝杰, 匡海波, 朱佳钰,等. 基于混合CVaR的出口海陆仓质押率与物流服务努力水平联合决策研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2023, 31(5): 93-103.
DIAO S J,KUANG H B,ZHU J Y, et al. Joint Decision-making Research on Pledge Rate and Logistics Service Effort Level of Export Sea and Land Warehouses Based on Hybrid CVaR[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(5): 93-103. (in Chinese)
[12] 朱宝琳, 薛林, 戢守峰, 等. 零售商风险规避下基于联合契约的双渠道供应链库存决策模型[J]. 系统管理学报, 2022, 31(2): 217-229.
ZHU B L,XUE L,ZAN S F, et al. Inventory decision-making model of dual-channel supply chain based on joint contract under retailer risk aversion[J]. Journal of Systems & Management, 2022, 31(2): 217-229. (in Chinese)
[13] HE J, JIANG X L, WANG J, et al. VaR methods for the dynamic impawn rate of steel in inventory financing under autocorrelative return[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2012, 223(1): 106-115.
[14] 汪刘凯, 张小波, 王未卿, 等. 基于MIDAS-SVQR的供应链金融质押物风险价值测度新方法[J/OL]. 中国管理科学: 1-13. https://doi.org/10.16381/ j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0634.
WANG L K,ZHANG X B,WANG W Q, et al. A new method for measuring the value of risk of collateral in supply chain finance based on MIDAS-SVQR[J/OL]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0634. (in Chinese)
[15] 王滋承, 周咏, 杨华龙. 出口海陆仓融资质押率优化[J]. 中国管理科学, 2017, 25(10): 20-30.
WANG Z C,ZHOU Y,YANG H L. Optimization of the financing pledge rate of export sea and land warehouses [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017, 25(10): 20-30. (in Chinese)
[16] 杨华龙, 高颖淇, 辛禹辰, 等. 出口海陆仓融资收/支利率优化[J]. 复旦学报(自然科学版), 2019, 58(1): 34-42. 
YANG H L,GAO Y Q,XIN S C, et al. The interest rate of income/expenditure of export sea and land warehouse financing has been optimized[J]. Journal of Fudan University(Natural Science), 2019, 58(1): 34-42. (in Chinese)
[17] LIU H Y, MAO T T. Distributionally robust reinsurance with Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk [J]. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2022,107(11): 393-417.

文章导航

/