大连海事大学学报 >

2025 , Vol. 51 >Issue 1: 63 - 70

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2025.01.007

基于HFACS-BN模型的船舶引航事故人为因素分析

展开
  • (1. 大连海事大学 航海学院，辽宁 大连 116026；2. 宁波大港引航有限公司， 浙江 宁波 315042) 
蒋子怡（2000 —），女，硕士生，E-mail: jiangziyi_@dlmu.edu.cn。肖仲明*（1982 —），男，副教授，Email: xiaozhongming@dlmu.edu.cn。

收稿日期: 2024-07-10

  修回日期: 2024-07-10

  录用日期: 2024-07-10

  网络出版日期: 2024-07-10

基金资助

国家重点研究计划项目（2019YFE0111600）

收起

Human factor analysis of ship pilotage accidents based on HFACS-BN model

Expand
  • (1. Navigation College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026,China; 2.Ningbo Dagang Pilot Co., Ltd, Ningbo 315042,China)

Received date: 2024-07-10

  Revised date: 2024-07-10

  Accepted date: 2024-07-10

  Online published: 2024-07-10

Fold

摘要

为更好地分析船舶引航事故中的人为因素，建立一个船舶引航事故人为因素分析模型，识别并评估船舶引航过程中关键风险因素的传递路径。首先，基于事故报告对原有的人为因素分析和分类系统（HFACS）框架进行调整和细化，识别出船舶引航事故中的人为因素；其次，基于HFACS框架内部的逻辑关系和贝叶斯网络(BN)理论，构建船舶引航事故HFACSBN模型，并验证模型的可靠性；最后，综合BN推理和灵敏度分析识别关键风险因素传递路径。研究结果表明，在所有人为因素传递路径中，“R1（行为错误）→P2（操作者状态不佳）→S2（运行计划不当）→M2（组织氛围较差）”为关键风险因素的传递路径。针对船舶引航事故中的人为因素实施有效的管控措施，对于阻断风险的进一步发展具有重要意义。

关键词： 船舶; 引航事故; 人为因素分析和分类系统(HFACS); 贝叶斯网络(BN); HFACS-BN模型

本文引用格式

蒋子怡, 肖仲明, 冯胤伟, 周东建 . 基于HFACS-BN模型的船舶引航事故人为因素分析[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2025 , 51(1) : 63 -70 . DOI: 10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2025.01.007

Abstract

In order to better analyze the human factors in ship pilotage accidents, a human factors analysis model for ship pilotage accidents was established to identify and evaluate the transmission path of key risk factors in the ship pilotage process. Firstly, the original human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) framework was adjusted and refined based on accident reports to identify human factors in pilotage accidents. Secondly, a HFACSBN model of ship pilotage accidents was constructed based on the logical relationships within the HFACS framework and Bayesian network (BN) theory to verify the reliability of the model. Finally, the key risk factor transmission path was identified by integrating BN inference and sensitivity analysis. Results show that among all human factors transmission paths, “R1 (behavioral error) → P2 (poor operator status) → S2 (improper operation plan) → M2 (poor organizational atmosphere)” is the transmission path of key risk factors. Implementing effective control measures against human factors in ship pilotage accidents is of great significance in preventing further development of risks.


Key words： ship; pilotage accidents; human factors analysis and classification system（HFACS）; Bayesian network（BN）; HFACS-BN model 

参考文献

[1] 王恩祥. 引航安全事故中的疏忽因素及应对措施[J]. 中国海事, 2022, 198(1): 46-48.
WANG E X. Negligent factors and countermeasures in pilotage safety accidents[J]. China Maritime Safety, 2022, 198(1): 46-48. (in Chinese)
[2] 席永涛, 李大鹏, 张清霄，等. 引航安全文化对引航员安全行为的影响——认知和态度的作用[J]. 中国航海, 2023, 46(2): 25-32.
XI Y T, LI D P, ZHANG Q X, et al. Impact of pilotage safety culture on pilots' safety behavior: cognition and attitude[J]. Navigation of China, 2023, 46(2): 25-32. (in Chinese)
[3] 陈正华, 方泉根. 上海港船舶引航风险的分析与预控[J]. 中国航海, 2009, 32(2): 68-72.
CHEN Z H, FANG Q G. Analysis and precaution of ship pilotage risks in shanghai harbor[J]. Navigation of China, 2009, 32(2): 68-72. (in Chinese)
[4] ATIYAH A, KONTOVAS C, SAEED F, et al. Marine pilot’s reliability index (MPRI): Evaluation of marine pilot reliability in uncertain environments[C]//2019 5th International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS). Liverpool: IEEE, 2019: 558-564.
[5] 吕涛. 基于HFACS-BN模型的空中交通管制人为因素研究[D]. 上海: 上海交通大学, 2020.
LYU T. Human factors analysis of air traffic safety based on HFACS-BN model[D]. Shanghai: Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2020. (in Chinese)
[6] ERGAI A, COHEN T, SHARP J, et al. Assessment of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS): Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability[J]. Safety Science, 2016, 82: 393-398.
[7] AYDIN M, UGURLU Ö, BORAN M. Assessment of human error contribution to maritime pilot transfer operation under HFACS-PV and SLIM approach[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2022, 266: 112830.
[8] 张欣欣, 胡甚平, 陈渊, 等. 船舶港口引航风险致因人-组织因素影响分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(12): 78-84.
ZHANG X X, HU S P, CHEN Y, et al. Impact analysis of human-organizational factors on pilotage risks at harbor[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(12): 78-84. (in Chinese)
[9] ÖZAYDIN E, FISKIN R, UGURLU Ö, et al. A hybrid model for marine accident analysis based on Bayesian Network (BN) and Association Rule Mining (ARM)[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2022, 247: 110705.
[10] ELIDOLU G, SEZER S I, AKYUZ E, et al. Operational risk assessment of ballasting and de-ballasting on-board tanker ship under FMECA extended Evidential Reasoning (ER) and Rule-based Bayesian Network (RBN) approach[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2023, 231: 108975.
[11] 田延飞, 乔慧, 滑林, 等. 海上船舶碰撞贝叶斯网络模型及其应用[J]. 海军工程大学学报, 2023, 35(6): 28-33.
TIAN Y F, QIAO H, HUA L, et al. Bayesian network model for ship collisions at sea and its applications[J]. Journal of Naval University of Engineering, 2023, 35(6): 28-33. (in Chinese)
[12] 陈星霖, 郭勇, 阳富强. 基于HFACS-BN模型的危险化学品事故人因路径分析[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2022, 18(9): 27-34.
CHEN X L, GUO Y, YANG F Q. Analysis on human factor path of hazardous chemical accidents based on HFACS-BN Model[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2022, 18(9): 27-34. (in Chinese)
[13] 肖仲明, 王新建, 章文俊. 基于贝叶斯网络模型的船舶搁浅事故分析[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2017, 17(2): 418-421.
XIAO Z M, WANG X J, ZHANG W J. Analysis for the ship grounding accidents based on the Bayesian network model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 17(2): 418-421. (in Chinese)
[14] 张爱琳. 船舶引航员人因可靠性分析[D]. 厦门: 集美大学, 2021.
ZHANG A L. Human reliability analysis of ship pilot[D]. Xiamen: Jimei University, 2021. (in Chinese)


Options
文章导航

/

〈 〉

版权所有 © 《大连海事大学学报》编辑部
电话：0411-84727810　
E-mail：xuebao@dlmu.edu.cn
技术支持：北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司