为更好地分析北极东北航线（NSR）的环境影响，构建燃料碳强度理论模型，应用模型分析北极东北航线作为苏伊士运河（SCR）替代航线的可行性.选择通航条件较好的北极东北航线，以上海至鹿特丹航线集装箱运输为例，对船舶航行NSR和SCR燃料碳强度进行比较分析，通过设定不同船型、航速、舱位利用率与NSR普通水域航段距离占比等四个变量，对比两条航线船舶航行燃料碳强度的差异性.结果表明，现有条件下，与经过SCR的16 000 TEU集装箱船相比，NSR七种船型虽然单航次二氧化碳排放量降低，但只有14 000 TEU和16 000 TEU船型燃料碳强度降低，而且优势不大；大型集装箱船航行燃料碳强度更低；降低冰水域航速和提高舱位利用率可使得船舶在NSR航行燃料碳强度降低.该结论可从“碳中和”视角，为北极东北航线船舶选型、航速设定提供参考；同时，建立的燃料碳强度模型可推广应用到其他航线上.

To better assess environmental impact of Northern Sea Route (NSR), the fuel carbon intensity of a ship fuel was established to analyze the feasibility of replacing Suez Canal Route (SCR) with NSR as alternatives. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) with good navigation conditions was selected. Taking the container transportation from Shanghai to Rotterdam as an example, the carbon intensity of NSR and SCR fuel for ship navigation was compared and analyzed. By setting four variables, such as different ship types, speed, cabin utilization and the proportion of segment distance in NSR common waters, the differences of ship navigation fuel carbon intensity between SCR and NSR were compared. The results show that under existing condition, compared to 16 000 TEU ordinary container ship on SCR, although iceclassed ships of all selected seven types on NSR can reduce carbon dioxide emission per single trip, however, only 14 000 and 16 000 TEU iceclassed NSR container ships can slightly reduce fuel carbon intensity, and the advantage was not great. The carbon intensity of navigation fuel for large container ships is lower. Reducing the ice water speed and improving the cabin utilization can reduce the fuel carbon intensity of ships sailing in NSR. The conclusion can provide reference for ship selection and speed setting in the NSR from the perspective of “carbon neutralization”. At the same time, the established fuel carbon intensity model can be extended to other routes.